A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
