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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.