Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
